The current election cycle continues to be unusual, although not for the same reasons we discussed in our previous article[1]. President Biden’s decision to withdraw from the campaign and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris at the end of July, just weeks before the convention, was coupled with the attack on former President Donald Trump during a campaign rally. Both events upsetan election cycle that tended to lean in favor of the Republican candidate. On the other hand, with the decision of independent candidate Robert Kennedy to suspend his campaign and endorse Trump’s, the alternative option that had carried the most weight to date disappeared.

The Democratic candidate for president

The wearing-away of Joe Biden’s persona ahead of the November election, evident in polls and public appearances, set the stage for Kamala’s rise as a viable option for Democrats, despite her weak 2020 presidential campaign and unremarkable record as vice president. After months of campaigns centered on two white, male, long-shot candidates, Harris stands as the first African-American woman, with Indian and Caribbean roots, to become the presidential nominee of a major party in the United States. This status could transform, albeit without guarantees, into support from sectors of the electorate that are committed to diversity. In addition, her 59 years of age are in sharp contrast with the 78 of her current opponent and the 81 of her predecessor, which renders uselessone of the battle axes of the Republican campaign.

Following Biden’s announcement, Harris won near-unanimous support from her party’s leadership, which, in turn, materialized in strong fundraising. In the first month since the launching of her campaign, the Democratic candidate raised $540 million[2]. In addition, Harris has a remarkable political trajectory: she has been Attorney General of California, Senator for that state and, of course, Vice-President of the United States.

In the months leading up to the election, the Democratic candidate will have to dispel doubts about her capacity to succeed in a debate against Trump and her ability to involve moderate and progressive voters. She will also face questions about her leadership skills and decisions made in the past, especially during her time as a prosecutor. Additionally, she will have to deal with the criticisms associated with Biden’s governance such as inflation, the immigration issue, as well as the conflicts in Ukraine and Palestine.

The Republican candidate is much better known than his opponent, as is the proven loyalty of his electoral base and his ability to get media attention, so we will not dwell any further on his figure.

The Vice Presidents

Among the strengths of the Harris campaign, the decision to name Tim Walz as her vice presidential choice should be mentioned. From 2018 to the present, Walz has served as governor of Minnesota where he has lived since 1996.

A native of West Point, Nebraska, his background includes more than two decades in the National Guard and a tour of duty in Italy as part of reinforcements to troops deployed to Afghanistan. He also worked as a social studies teacher and American football coach. In 2004, he volunteered for Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry’s campaign, and between 2006 and 2018 he showed his credentials as a moderate-leaning Representative within the federal Congress.

Contrary to his record in the legislature, he has favored progressive measures from his seat as governor, such as the approval of facilities for undocumented immigrants, the legalization of marijuana, the protection of access to abortion and free school meals.

The aspiration of the Democratic campaign is that Walz’s life story will have an impact on voters in key states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, while at the same time reinforcing Harris’s appeal to important sectors of the electorate.

Walz’s time in Congress can be described as favorable to Cuba, based on his support for positive bills for bilateral relations, such as the Freedom to Travel to Cuba Act (111th and 114th Congress[3]), the Cuba Free Trade Act (114th Congress) and the Cuba Agricultural Exports Act (114th and 115th Congress).

For his part, the Republican option for the vice-presidency is the senator for Ohio, J. D. (James Donald) Vance, who in a short time went from defining himself as a conservative opposed to Trump, to an open defender of the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement led by the former president. Vance, 40, comes from a working family in Ohio, a credential with which he seeks to represent those “forgotten” sectors on which Trump’s 2016 campaign successfully focused.

In 2003 he enlisted in the Navy and served a tour of duty in Iraq. His political career began with his recent victory in 2022 for the U.S. Senate seat. Among his most controversial statements, it is worth mentioning the one made in February of this year when he expressed that, had he been in Mike Pence’s place in 2021, he would not have certified the results of the 2020 elections that gave the victory to Biden[4].

Swing states: “Road to 270”

The integration of Kamala as a Democratic candidate in the electoral scenario led to the inclusion of North Carolina within the key states. This brings the total number of states in dispute to 7: Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), Nevada (6) and North Carolina (16). In total, there are 93 electoral votes that cannot be tentatively assigned to any of the candidates, due to the tightness of these states. Without these votes, none of the presidential hopefuls has enough support to predict a possible victory (270 electoral votes), so we continue to face a scenario that points to a close election. With this starting point, Harris is virtually assured of 226 Electoral College votes, while Trump has 219[5].

In contrast to President Biden’s growing disadvantage in the polls in recent months, Harris has managed to match or narrowly lead Trump in the battleground states. To illustrate this scenario, we draw on polling averages produced by the DDHQ-The Hill, FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics platforms through Sept. 2:

As can be seen, the differences between the two candidates are negligible and most of them fall within the margin of error of the polls, which is usually higher than 3%. This context generates considerable uncertainty in all efforts to forecast possible results.

Another matter to bear in mind is access to the vote in these states. The Brennan Center for Justice carried out a survey of the new laws to relax or limit this civilian exercise, as well as to influence possible efforts to interfere in the elections[6]. The cases of Michigan, with 10 new laws to expand access to vote, and Nevada, with six, stand out. In contrast, North Carolina will implement two new measures to restrict voting. Arizona and Georgia will have several pieces of legislation in place for each purpose mentioned above, while Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are unchanged since 2020.

Campaign strategies

Trump’s campaign seems to have opted for a strategy focused on winning Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, which would assure him exactly 270 electoral votes. For its part, the path to Democratic victory is focusing on Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, although it is also betting on Kamala’s ability to mobilize among the large African-American sectors in Georgia and North Carolina. A plausible victory option for Harris that does not include Pennsylvania is to win Michigan and Wisconsin, plus Georgia and North Carolina (283 electoral votes) or one of these two added to Arizona (278) or Nevada (273).

A recent memo from her campaign revealed the intention to show Harris at a disadvantage with respect to Trump, mainly because of the general lack of knowledge about the vice-president and Walz. The rhetoric differs from that used for Biden’s campaign, which sought to show him with more strengths than Trump, and may be aimed at mobilizing the electorate in the face of the possibility of a re-election of the former Republican president.

A common goal of both campaigns is the state of Pennsylvania, the one that gathers more electoral votes among the swing states, where they are allocating most funds[7] and the one that will probably end up deciding the election.

From the information available, it is not possible to say in September which candidate has the best chance of winning the November elections. What does seem more evident is that these elections have a special connotation for Trump who, if he loses, not only risks a deep wound to his ego, but his own freedom as well. For this reason, and with the impunity he has enjoyed after the assault on the Capitol in 2021, it is possible that he will not accept a Harris victory and the scenario will become violent after November 5.

Federal Congressional Elections

On November 5, congressional elections will also be held in the United States. Of the 100 senatorial seats, 33 will be contested, as well as the 435 seats in the House of Representatives.

The Senate

Democrats currently hold 51 seats to 49 the Republicans. The 33 seats up for election this year are distributed as follows: 15 Democrats (D), eight Republicans (R), two independents and eight open (where the current legislator is not re-elected).

Of the eight open races, four are held by Democrats, two by Republicans and two by independents. The independents (Arizona and West Virginia) were formerly Democrats and counted as such for that party’s 51-seat majority.

The most competitive races amount to 14 and the forecasts of the most important firms can be summarized as follows[8]:

1- W. Virginia: the 5 coincide in R Sure.

2- Montana: all say a Tie, except The Hill which gives it Leaning to R.

3- Ohio: all say a Tie.

4- Michigan: Sabatoand Fox Leaning to D. The others say a Tie.

5- Pennsylvania: The Hill Probable D; Cook, Sabato and Fox Leaning to D and RCP,aTie.

6- Arizona: Cook, Sabato and Fox Leaning to D. The Hill and RCP, a Tie.

7- Wisconsin: all say Leaning to D.

8- Nevada: all say Leaning to D, except Fox, which says a Tie.

9- Minnesota: all say Sure for D, except RCP,which says Probable D.

10- Maryland: The Hill says a Sure D; Cook andSabato Probable D and RCP and Fox Leaning to D.

11- Texas: all say Probable R, except RCP, which says Leaning to R.

12- New Jersey: Cook, Sabato and Fox say a Sure D. RCP and The Hill say a Probable D.

13- Utah: all say a Sure R.

14- Florida: Cook, Sabato and The Hill say a Probable R. RCP and Fox Leaning to R.

The current situation in the 14 states is described as follows:

1- West Virginia: the only polls are from June and give a lead of about 30 points to Republican Jim Justice. There is absolute agreement that this seat will pass to Republican control.

2- Montana: Of 3 polls reflected on the FiveThirtyEight site in August, 2 give a 2 and 5 point lead to Republican Sheehy and 1 (from RMG Research) gives a 5 point lead to Democrat Tester. The Hill in August 5, 10 and 22 polls gives Sheehy leads of 3.7, 2 and 2 points respectively. Real Clear Politics on August 20 gives an average 5-point lead to Sheehy. Tester currently holds that seat but Montana is a heavily Republican state. Although it is slightly leaning to Sheehy at this time, we will have to wait and see how it evolves in the coming months with Harris as the nominee, and whether enthusiasm among Democrats causes a strong voter turnout. At this time there is no definite prognosis in favor of one or the other. 

3- Ohio: Ohio is a Republican state but Democrat Brown currently holds that seat and is quite popular. FiveThirtyEight in two August polls gives Brown leads of 5 and 4 pts. while The Hill in one August 22 gives him a 4.8 lead. On August 17 Real Clear Politics (RCP) gives Brown an average 5 pts. lead. It is necessary to see how things evolve in the coming months, and although an undefined race is forecast, we are inclined to believe that Brown will retain his seat.

4- Michigan: In the 5 polls conducted by FiveThirtyEight in August, Democrat Slotkin outperforms her Republican rival by differences ranging from 1 to 10 points. The 270 to Win firm, in 10 polls between July and August, gives Slotkinleads of between 3 and 12 points, although the most recognized firms give him between 3 and 8 points. The Hill on Aug. 22 gives Slotkin a 6.4 point lead, and RCP on Aug. 22 gave him a 4.1 average over Republican Rogers. Since this is a swing state, an open election, and the differences are not that great, one should not be confident in a definitive prediction yet, although it is significant that there is unanimity in the Democratic candidate’s lead, at least so far, which is a good sign for the Democratic Party.

5- Pennsylvania: Several FiveThirtyEight polls give Democrat Casey an advantage of between 4 and 12 points, and 3 The Hill polls give him 9.2, 5.4 and 8.6 points respectively. Meanwhile, 270 to Win on Aug. 19 gave him an average 8.8-point lead, and RCP on Aug. 17 gave him a 7.6-point lead. Although Pennsylvania is a swing state, Casey is an incumbent and has prestige, so the way things look today he can be predicted asa winner in November.

6- Arizona: So far, in this open election, all the polls favor the Democrat Gallego. According to FiveThirtyEight, of 8 polls that have been held in August, only one gives it as a tie; the rest give Gallego an advantage of between 2 and 11 points. The Hill also gives him leads of 5.6 and 4.8 in two August polls, while 270 to Win in polls from 5 different firms gives him an average of 7.3 over Lake. RCP’s Aug. 19 RCP puts him 6.7 points up. A Fox poll from late August gives him a 15-point lead. Although till now the situation points to a Democratic victory, it cannot yet be considered certain.

7- Wisconsin: For now, Democratic incumbent Baldwin is ahead of her rival in all polls held in the state. Ten FiveThirtyEight polls give her a 5 to 9 point lead. Two from The Hill give her 6.7 and 7.4 respectively, while 270 to Win as an average of 5 different polls gives her 7.3 preference and RCP averages 6.7. It looks liketheseatwillremain blue.

8- Nevada: Democratic incumbent Rosen is ahead in the polls. In 5 FiveThirtyEight polls in August, she won all with leads between 3 and 18 points, while an average of 5 270 to Win polls held between July and August give her an average of 7.25 points. From The Hill the latest is their July 18 forecast of a 73% chance of Rosen keeping her seat. RCP from August 19 gives her an average of 9.4 points. A Fox one from late August gives her a 14-point lead. The seat should remain Democrat, though it is not a definitive forecast.

9- Minnesota: The primary just took place in August and we still have no post-polls. In June and July, against then pre-candidate White, Klobuchar was given an average lead of 11 to 14 points. RCP in June 18 gave her an average of 11.5 points. Minnesota is a Democratic state and Klobuchar has been a senator since 2007, has prestige, good acceptance among her constituents and has previously won with relative ease, so she should keep her seat in November.

10- Maryland: There will be an open election following the retirement of well-known Democratic Senator Ben Cardin, and although the state is Democratic, the Republican candidate, Larry Hogan, is a former governor of the state and enjoys wide popularity, so many specialists expect an uncertain outcome. Alsobrooks is a black attorney with limited experience in county politics. Both primaries were in May. Two FiveThirtyEight polls from June give Alsobrooks leads of 8 and 11 points, while The Hill in August gives her an 8.3 point lead. 270 to Win reflects 4 polls from February through April that give Hogan an average lead of 10.7, and 2 from May and June that give Alsobrooks a 9-point lead. June RCP gives a 9 point average advantage to the Democratic candidate. It is necessary to wait for the results of the September and October polls to have a more accurate idea of what might happen. However, the clear predilectionin Maryland for the Democratic Party and the strength that the Harris campaign can inject among Democratic voters could define the state in their favor.

11- Texas: Texas, along with Florida, is one of the two Republican states that the Democrats aspire to reverse. FiveThirtyEight, in 3 polls in July, gives 7 points on average in favor of Cruz, while in one in August it gives him only 2 points. The Hill relies on 19 polls and gives him an average of 3.4, 270 to Win 2.5, and Fox, in one August 22 gives him a 2.1 lead. RCP’s August 16 average is 7.4 for Cruz. Although Texas is a Republican state and Cruz is an incumbent, it is striking that, especially in the latest polls, his lead does not exceed 4 points, and so even if Cruz remains a favorite, we must keep an eye on how things evolve over the next two months.

12- New Jersey: It is an open election in a clearly Democratic state whose incumbent Bob Menendez had to resign after being convicted in a corruption trial.To replace him, the governor appointed for a three-month term a favorite of his own instead of the primary winner, Andy Kim, of Korean origin. The winner of the Republican primary, Curtis Bashaw, is openly LGBT. No recent polls have been conducted, but two from June give Kim leads of 7 and 6 points respectively. It is estimated that the seat will remain in the hands of the Democratic Party.

13- Utah: Open election due to the retirement of well-known senator and former presidential candidate Mitt Romney. The primaries of both parties were in August and there are no polls yet. It is a clearly Republican state and The Hill gives them a 99% chance of keeping the seat, which seems fairly certain.

14- Florida: Three polls released by FiveThirtyEight from July and August give Republican incumbent Scott an average 6-point lead. Two 270 to Win polls from July and August give him a 4-point lead in each, while one from The Hill on Aug. 22 gives him a 5.9-point lead. RCP in August 11 gave him an average of 5.7. While the differences in Scott’s favor are not wide, they are unanimous in his favor. However, even though Florida is Republican, Scott is an incumbent and a clear favorite of the pundits, we will have to follow developments in September and October.

Outlook

At this moment, two months away from the November 5 elections, everything seems to indicate that the Democratic Party will lose the majority it currently enjoys in the Senate. The seat it held in the state of West Virginia will almost certainly go to the Republicans. The final best-case scenario for the Democratic Party would be if each party were definitely left with 50 seats. However, Montana and Ohio, as it looks today, are very evenly matched and could end up in favor of either party, although in the case of Ohio we are leaning slightly in favor of it remaining under Democratic control.

The House of Representatives

Republicans currently control the House of Representatives by 220 seats to the Democrats’ 212, with 3 vacancies. Their advantage is so small that just four seats flipping from Republican to Democrat would result in a tie. A large number of representatives will retire; so far: 23 Democrats and 21 Republicans.

Democrats will have to defend 5 districts that were won by Trump in 2020, while Republicans would do so in 17 that were won by Biden, which could give some advantage in principle to Democrats. Among the most competitive races, 4 will be held in California and 3 in New York.

Let’s take a look at the forecasts according to the most important firms:

        S- sure P- probable I- leaning T- total E- tie 

Cook: August16

PD: 173S   16P   14I   T203   E11

PR: 192S   10P    8I    T210   E11

Sabato: July31

PD  175S   16P   14I   T205   E10

PR  191S    11P    9I    T211   E9

Fox:  August 14

PD  176S    14P   15I   T205

PR  190S    11P   10I   T211

Ties  19

The Hill   July

PD                                   T206

PR                                   T213

Inside Elections:  August 16

PD                                    T209

PR                                    T216

Election Daily:  March 24

PD                                    T207

PR                                    T210

C Analysis:  August 8

PD                                    T211

PR                                    T209

Split Ticket: August 16

PD    S180   P20   I14   T214

PR    S189   P15   I7     T211

Ties 10

270 to Win:  August 17 (Average of several)

PD     S173     P19     I13    T205

PR     S185     P16     I8      T209

Ties 21

Most of the firms, especially the best known ones, currently give the Republicans an advantage of about six seats, while among the less recognized ones the Republican advantages are minimal and there are two that give a slight advantage to the Democrats. In addition, the number of tied seats ranges from 9 to 21, and the Leaning seats are approximately 10. This allows us to conclude that, at the moment, it is impossible to determine which party will have the majority in the Lower House.

In addition, there is a new factor that is not yet reflected in polls and analyses: the resignation of President Biden to reelection and the candidacy of Kamala Harris. This has generated a very favorable reaction among Democrats, where enthusiasm and optimism are beginning to be perceived, which may turn into an important motivation for Democrats to come out to vote in considerably greater numbers.If it happens, greater number of Democrats would have a chance of winning seats.

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[1] https://www.cipi.cu/situacion-actual-de-las-elecciones-en-los-estados-unidos/

[2] https://apnews.com/article/kamala-harris-donald-trump-fundraising-43b32b26125229db182234f7ec06da14

[3] Reference is made to the sessions of Congress. These are numbered in increasing order every two years.

[4]  https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/jd-vance-defends-trump-claims-invoking-jean-carroll/story?id=106925954

[5] On the distribution of the Electoral College see: https://www.cipi.cu/situacion-actual-de-las-elecciones-en-los-estados-unidos/

[6] https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/how-voting-laws-have-changed-battleground-states-2020

[7] https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/pennsylvania-ad-spending-election-2024-e9c06d59

[8] Cook Political Report forecasts are from August 15; Sabato’s Crystal Ball, June 13; RealClearPolitics, August 21; The Hill, July 18; and Fox, August 21. State names in red are Republican, those in blue are Democratic, and those in purple are swing states.